With Or Without Hamels’ Elbow, the Phillies Aren’t Repeating

Even if Phillies' ace Cole Hamels comes back at 100%, do the Phillies really have a shot of repeating as World Series Champs? (Photos courtesy Philadelphia Phillies

Oh, how the beat writers covering the Philadelphia Phillies’ annual spring-training exploits in Clearwater, Florida are encouraging fans (Phans?) to collectively hold their breath over the fragile elbow of staff ace Cole Hamels. However will the Phillies repeat as World Series champs, they wonder, without their star pitcher?

Rest easy, Phillies fans. They were never going to repeat anyway.

Never mind the fact that no National League team has won back-to-back World Series since the 1975-76 Cincinnati Reds, while only the Blue Jays (1992-93) and Yankees (1977-78, 1998-2000) have done it since then in the American League. Repeating as the champion of Major League Baseball is a difficult task, even for great teams.

The Phillies, as currently constituted, are very good, but not “great”. Greatness, or at the very least World Series success, is naturally expressed in a team’s equilibrium—some great teams may excel at hitting, pitching, and fielding (the 1998 Yankees), some may rely to a greater degree on pitching (the 1990s Atlanta Braves), while others dominate by scoring boatloads of runs while offering merely decent pitching (the aforementioned 1975-76 Reds).

Jamie Moyer is coming back, but fans shouldn't expect much from a low-velocity, home-run prone 46-year-old pitcher.

The path to greatness (and a World Series repeat) for these Phillies, unlikely though it may be, would follow the third option—lots of offense, good defense, and good, but not great, pitching. The injury to Hamels’ elbow only underscores how precarious Philadelphia’s pitching situation is—particularly their starting pitching—going into the 2009 season.

Hamels is great when he’s on, but 2008 was the first season where he made more than 30 starts, or pitched more than 200 innings. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system sees Hamels having a 39 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) in 2009—down from 55.5 in 2008.

Jamie Moyer, the second-most productive Phillies pitcher last season, is 46 years old, and has only posted an ERA better than league average three times in the last 6 seasons. He has value, to be sure, especially as the projected #4 starter in the rotation—but to expect a low-velocity, home-run prone pitcher of his age to get better rather than worse is simply wishful thinking.

The rest of the Phils’ projected rotation—Joe Blanton, Brett Myers, and Kyle Kendrick—all have concerns. Blanton and Kendrick promise to be nothing more than inning-eaters at best, and while Myers has truck-loads of talent, his off-the-field issues do not inspire confidence in his future performance.

The bullpen should once again be the strength of the Phillies’ pitching staff, but has the Brad Lidge of 2008, with his 1.95 ERA, completely put to rest the Lidge of 2006 and 2007, when he posted ERAs of 5.28 and 3.36? More importantly, how useful is a great bullpen if the starters are erratic, either breaking down or giving up 4-5 runs per outing? Will an offense featuring a declining Ryan Howard and an aging Raul Ibanez score enough runs to compensate?

These are questions that the Phillies faithful would rather remain unasked.

—————————————————————

Jox Populi is a weekly sports column by Observer Staff Reporter Justin Jones. Justin can be reached at justin@BearGlasgowObserver.com.