Have the Phillies Dropped the “Moneyball”?

Is Ryan Howard worth the 3-year, $54 million contract extension the Phillies signed him to? (Photo by Ed B)

By one measure, the 2008 World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies were an efficient baseball enterprise. Their payroll totaled $95.47 million, less than half of the $207 million spent by the New York Yankees, and less than their National League East rivals the New York Mets ($137 million) and Atlanta Braves ($102 million). Then again, the American League pennant-winning Tampa Bay Rays won five more regular-season games than did the Phillies, and did it with a comparatively paltry payroll of $43 million—29th lowest of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball (only the slash-and-burn Florida Marlins, at $22 million, were lower).

If getting a good marginal return on each payroll dollar spent was a priority for baseball teams in the past, it is now becoming a necessity in the barren economic landscape in which America finds itself. Any team that wishes to be competitive must choose to spend their money wisely—“Moneyball” isn’t just a niche for sabermetrics devotees like Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane anymore, it is now competitive baseball’s new paradigm.

It is puzzling, in light of this new reality, that the Phillies have decided to sign first baseman Ryan Howard to a 3-year, $54 million contract extension. True, he is only two seasons removed from an MVP effort, and last season Howard finished second in the MVP balloting. He hasn’t hit fewer than 47 home runs during the last three seasons, and hasn’t driven in fewer than 136 runs in that time, either. Securing such a player to a contract of even a modest length seems, at first glance, to be very sensible.

First glances, especially those of the superficial variety, are often deceiving. Howard is now 29 years old, ensuring that the entirety of that $54 million will be spent on a player who is unquestionably past his prime (baseball players historically peak at age 27). Not only is Howard past his prime, he is already in decline. Don’t believe me? Howard’s Win Shares over the past three seasons (earliest to most recent) were 31, 26, and 25. His Runs Created over that time were 169, 124, and 113, his On-Base Percentages were .425, .392, and .339, his Slugging Percentages were .659, .584, and .543—in short, there is hardly a measurable statistic of value in which Ryan Howard hasn’t declined considerably and (more importantly) progressively since 2006.

The National's acquired outfielder Adam Dunn for $20 million over two years. For four of the last five years, Dunn has had at least 40-home runs, 100-RBIs, and drew 100 or more walks. (Photo by SD Dirk)

Is it possible that Howard could reverse this trend? Yes, of course. That being said, it is decidedly unlikely. His age argues against it, as does his physical body type. Anyone who has watched a Phillies game in the last year or two will recognized that Howard’s press guide listing of 230 lbs is so conservative as to border on delusional. Using the Similarity Scores found on Baseball-reference.com (which do not, interestingly enough, take body type into account), one will find that the most historically similar players to Ryan Howard through Age 28 are Cecil Fielder, Norm Cash, Tony Clark, and Mo Vaughn. With the exception of Cash, these are big, slow power hitters with a penchant for strikeouts and weight-control issues.

In 2008, Ryan Howard’s salary was a cool $10 million. Yet after his second straight declining season he predictably rejected the Phillies’ offer of $14 million per year, and asked for $18 million in arbitration. The Phillies, afraid of losing a “key” member of their championship team, gave him the big extension. Was this the best use of Philadelphia’s payroll dollars?

Consider free agent slugger Adam Dunn, who recently inked a 2-year, $20 million deal with the Washington Nationals. Dunn, like Howard, will be 29 as the 2009 season begins. Like Howard, Dunn is a large, slow power hitter who routinely contends for the league-lead in strikeouts. Dunn is a poor left fielder who belongs at first base; Howard, who is more rotund, has never tempted managers to move him from first base. So why has baseball’s free agent market valued Ryan Howard at $8 million more per season than Adam Dunn?

While Dunn has never admittedly had a season comparable to Howard’s 2006 MVP effort, he presents two advantages to the canny baseball GM looking to improve his team: consistency, and hidden value. 2008 marked Dunn’s fifth consecutive 40-home run season, his fourth 100-RBI season in five years, and his fifth straight season of drawing 100 or more bases on balls. Dunn’s Win Shares over the last three seasons have been 20, 21, and 23. He has topped the 100-mark in Runs Created in six of the past seven seasons.

Dunn’s consistent, predictable performance would not be so enticing were he not also productive. Unfortunately, despite the revolution in baseball management by Billy Beane, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, and others, a pernicious conventional wisdom remains entrenched among “baseball men”. You see, Adam Dunn has also consistently posted low batting averages (with a career .247 mark). Many GMs either refuse, or simply cannot, conceive of a player with a low batting average and truckloads of strikeouts as being, you know, valuable.

While Ryan Howard posted a .339 On-Base Percentage and received an $8 million raise, Dunn’s fourth OBP of .380+ in five years was rewarded with a $3 million pay cut. In 2008, Howard created 113 runs while using 475 outs; Dunn created 111 runs using 408 outs. Dunn is consistent, while Howard packs on the pounds. If the fact that the Phillies are paying an extra $8 million per year to waste 60 to 70 more outs doesn’t convince you, here are Dunn’s most comparable Age 28 players, historically: Darryl Strawberry, Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson, Jose Canseco. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro’s decision to invest in Jim’s Cheesesteaks in lieu of Dunn’s reliable, comparatively cheap production bodes ill for any chances of a World Series repeat.

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Jox Populi is a weekly sports column by Observer Staff Reporter Justin Jones. Justin can be reached at justin@BearGlasgowObserver.com